Oct 25, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 25 01:00:28 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121025 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20121025 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20121025 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20121025 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 250056
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
   
   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATING
   NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT CURVING FROM THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WITH LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE
   COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH
   OF THE FRONT HAVE INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS
   POINT...ASIDE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE
   SUPERIOR AREA.  SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING
   MAINTAINED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS
   OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   THE THREAT COULD INCLUDE SEVERE WIND/TORNADO...IF FORCING SUPPORTS
   WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT APPEARS
   PROBABLE THAT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY
   BE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH PRIMARILY A RISK FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/25/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z