Oct 25, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Thu Oct 25 01:00:28 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
---|
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 250056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT CURVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...ASIDE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE THREAT COULD INCLUDE SEVERE WIND/TORNADO...IF FORCING SUPPORTS WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH PRIMARILY A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. ..KERR.. 10/25/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z