Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 301933
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
   
   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED OFFSHORE CONVECTION
   APPROACHING THE COAST OF ERN MA...WHERE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS
   HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED FARTHER N ACROSS ME WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE
   TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BUT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60F. REGIONAL
   VWP DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
   PRESENT...AND BACKED/E-SELY SFC WINDS ARE ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   THUS...LOCALLY DMG WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   HINDERED BY WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOB 300
   J/KG.
   
   ..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 10/30/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
   OVER S-CNTRL PA AS OF 15Z WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WWD TOWARD THE
   PA/OH BORDER BEFORE TURNING NWD TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOMPASSED
   BY A SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
   THE NATION THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD.  
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   THE DEEPLY OCCLUDED NATURE OF SANDY HAS DISPLACED THE WARM CONVEYOR
   AIR STREAM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND INTO SERN QUEBEC. A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS WITHIN THE WARM
   CONVEYOR AIR STREAM FROM WRN ME TO OFF THE COAST E OF PORTLAND.  THE
   12Z PORTLAND/GRAY SOUNDING LIKELY REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
   AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM WHICH YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES OF
   AROUND 200 J/KG.  BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...IT
   APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE
   AXIS OF HIGHEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH MLCAPE RISING
   TO PERHAPS 400-500 J/KG.
   
   LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ONGOING
   CONFLUENCE BAND WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS ME /PERHAPS DRIFTING EWD
   WITH TIME/ WHERE THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS ALIGNS WITH A
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
   THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. 
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS WILL A BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z