Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 051240
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION REVEAL A FAST
   AND WELL AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENT. A STRONG NORTH
   PACIFIC JET MOVING OVER WRN BC HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
   AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WRN CANADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN
   CANADA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CRESTS
   THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN CANADA BEFORE TURNING SOUTH ACROSS THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
   CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STRONG
   SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FL. WHILE A NUMBER OF
   SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
   FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT IS A COMPACT AND STRENGTHENING
   IMPULSE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF
   COAST THAT WILL DRIVE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST...
   AHEAD OF THE COMPACT BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING
   SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM
   NRN FL WEST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN.
   GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL HEATING
   WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE TX
   COASTAL PLAIN INTO SRN LA. WHILE THIS OCCURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR AND NRN LA WITH 12H
   500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M OVER THESE AREAS BY EVENING.
   
   LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
   MID/UPPER JET COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND ISOLD HAIL
   POTENTIAL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM AR/NRN LA INTO MS
   TODAY. HOWEVER...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AS THE UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS RELATIVELY
   NARROW BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO
   SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR
   IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH
   STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POSSIBLY FAVORING
   SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   SUPPORTED BY THE STRENGTH AND CONTINUING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
   MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL
   IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
   TUESDAY.
   
   ..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/05/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z