Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 060508
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND A BROADER AREA OF
   CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED OVER
   ITS WRN FLANK BY A DISTURBANCE SHIFTING SSEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
   A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ENEWD/NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
   FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL AND INTO THE WRN N
   ATLANTIC. THE LOW WILL TAKE MORE OF A NWD TRACK TONIGHT OFF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OWING TO THE INCREASING
   SPATIAL PROXIMITY BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE SFC
   LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE ATOP THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. ANY
   RESIDUAL...SFC-BASED...INLAND WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL
   BE PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM
   THE SFC LOW CLEARS FL FROM NW TO SE.
   
   ...THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE NERN GULF
   OF MEXICO INVOF THE SFC FRONT. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE FOUND
   IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL LOW...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
   THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS
   THE WRN FL COAST FROM SRN PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPA BAY
   AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS CAN BE MAINTAINED
   THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERLAYING THE NERN GULF WATERS. THE
   PRESENCE OF 50-65 KT OF 500-MB FLOW WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
   FOR SUCH RISK.
   
   HOWEVER...FACTORS THAT WILL LARGELY MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL OVER
   LAND INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING: /1/ THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING
   HINDERING INLAND DESTABILIZATION...THUS LESSENING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGER CONVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED OVER LAND AND REDUCING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC...
   /2/ THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE FRONTAL
   LOW AS IT CROSSES N FL...AND /3/ THE STRONGER 500-MB HEIGHT
   FALLS/ASCENT RESIDING NORTH OF THE FL WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH...SVR
   PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED...WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SVR THREAT LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NERN
   GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
   
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MID/UPPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SPATIALLY REMOVED FROM THE FRONT AS
   IT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS FL. AS SUCH...FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BECOME
   MORE SHALLOW...AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL DECREASE WITH
   TIME. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST PW AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AS THEY NEAR SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
   CLOUDS FURTHER MITIGATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
   
   ..COHEN/BUNTING.. 11/06/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z