Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 081241
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 AM CST THU NOV 08 2012
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS ONE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
   AND EAST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND
   GREAT BASIN. IN BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE TROUGHS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
   RIDGING WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGIN TO BUILD
   EAST AND NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
   FRIDAY. TSTM PROSPECTS WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF APPRECIABLE
   MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST BUT A FEW AREAS WILL HAVE
   SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
   SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING.
   
   ...WEST COAST INLAND ACROSS ORE/ID...
   LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO NRN
   CA TODAY SHOULD COMBINE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND
   OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. MUCAPE IN THIS
   REGIME IS FORECAST TO BE AOB 100 J/KG AND EXPECT LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC LIGHTNING.
   
   ...SRN CA COAST...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE EJECTING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE MUCH
   STRONGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A
   COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STORMS OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA THIS MORNING.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INTO SRN CA THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGEST THERE MAY
   BE ENOUGH CAPE ROOTED ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   A COUPLE OF TSTMS AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE COAST.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   SAME DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN CA WILL ALSO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS
   THE LOWER CO VALLEY AND AZ LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   MOISTENING AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AMIDST SUFFICIENTLY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED TSTMS INTO THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/08/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z