Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SSW INTO
   PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E TO THE RCKYS THIS
   PERIOD...WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
   NATION. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION SHOULD TURN NNE AND REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12Z SUN
   AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW IN CA CONTINUES SE INTO AZ/NM. 
   
   AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW OVER NE CO EXPECTED TO EDGE ESE INTO NW KS
   BY THIS EVE...WHILE ANOTHER LOW EVOLVES NEAR ERN NEB AND DEVELOPS
   NNE TO SE SD/NW IA. BY 12Z SUN...THE LOWS LIKELY WILL HAVE
   CONSOLIDATED OVER N CNTRL MN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING
   SSW INTO SE KS/N CNTRL OK/NW TX. THE FRONT...AND A LEE TROUGH/WIND
   SHIFT AHEAD OF IT...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS...AND A
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR WEATHER...THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...UPR MS/MID MO VLYS SSW INTO NW TX LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   VERY STRONG...DEEP SSW TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
   WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED TSTMS LATER TODAY
   THROUGH EARLY SUN...ALTHOUGH RATHER LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   AND EXPANSIVE EML CAP WILL LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE AND
   SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SVR THREAT.
   
   EXPECT THAT INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTN ALONG LEE
   TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE IN WRN/CNTRL KS SSW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES AS HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE SERVE
   TO BREACH CAP. 500 TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR
   FORCING /I.E..STRONG DCVA/ AND 50-60 KT SSW TO SWLY CLOUD-LAYER
   SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
   TORNADOES IN AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID TO UPR 50S F/.
   
   WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND NNEWD BEYOND THE LEE TROUGH INTO
   ERN NEB AND PERHAPS WRN/SRN MN AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS
   THE MID MO VLY. WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH WITH NWD
   EXTENT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD/POSSIBLY ELEVATED STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY
   COULD REACH AS FAR N AS NRN MN. OVER TIME...STORMS SHOULD TEND
   TOWARD A FORCED LINEAR MODE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN KS NWD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   FARTHER S THROUGH KS INTO OK/NW TX...STORMS MAY REMAIN MIXED IN
   MODE...WITH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH
   LATE EVE. A MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT AS COLD
   FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD. AN ISOLD SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AS SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
   SPREAD N ACROSS THE RED RVR. OVERALL...HOWEVER...SVR THREAT SHOULD
   SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TNGT/EARLY SUN.
   
   ..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/10/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z