Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 110542
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR...NW
   LA...EAST TX...SE OK AND FAR SRN MO...
   
   ....EAST TX/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT
   PLAINS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
   A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE
   THREAT...SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT FROM WRN MO EXTENDING SWWD INTO OK AND NORTH TX. AS SFC TEMPS
   WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS DEVELOP A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY FROM WRN ARK SWD ACROSS EAST TX. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE
   WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AS A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...MOVING A SOLID
   LINE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AR AND NE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LITTLE ROCK SWWD TO AROUND TYLER TX BETWEEN
   21Z/SUN AND 00Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 700 TO 1200 J/KG
   RANGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED
   WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR
   IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTING A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM FAR NE TX NEWD TO NEAR LITTLE
   ROCK ON THE WRN EDGE OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGEST
   PART OF THE SQUALL-LINE. THE HAIL THREAT MAY BE GREATEST IN THE
   SOUTHWEST PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE A BIT
   STEEPER COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING DUE THE NARROWNESS OF THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR.
   
   ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 11/11/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z