Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151626
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS SWD TO THE ERN FL PENINSULA...
   THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TRACKING
   EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A COMPACT LOBE OF ASCENT LEADING
   THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH
   LITTLE /IF ANY/ DEEP CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. A
   DECREASING LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
   HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE ASCENT IS PHASING WITH VERY MEAGER
   INSTABILITY...AT MOST. AND...WITH THE 12Z MOREHEAD CITY NC SOUNDING
   DEPICTING A NARROW-CAPE PROFILE WITH JUST OVER 100 J/KG OF CAPE FOR
   A PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL...LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
   UNLIKELY AS THE VORT MAX TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP DRY AIR WITH A HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE IS
   WRAPPING AROUND A BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SRN GA AND FL
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   INDICATING A STABLE LAYER CENTERED AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL. THESE
   FACTORS...ALONG WITH ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY --
   BEING HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS -- AND ONLY WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM BECOMING
   SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING. 
   
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE
   COAST. AS SUCH...THE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY-1 PERIOD.
   
   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z