Nov 23, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 23 12:50:32 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121123 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20121123 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20121123 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20121123 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 231246
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2012
   
   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
   SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO THE TX COAST BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...AND OFFSHORE BY DARK.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
   AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS EVENING. 
   RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY TODAY.
   
   ..HART/DISPIGNA.. 11/23/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z