Nov 23, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Nov 23 12:50:32 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 231246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2012 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO THE TX COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND OFFSHORE BY DARK. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ..HART/DISPIGNA.. 11/23/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z