Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 251907
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
   
   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WAS ANALYZED AT 12Z
   ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOST OF WRN CONUS...AMIDST GRADUAL PATTERN
   AMPLIFICATION.  NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD
   ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS...REACHING BLACK HILLS REGION BY END OF
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...WEAK SRN-STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG BAJA -- WILL MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS
   NRN MEX...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO BROADER-SCALE REGIME OF
   TROUGHING...HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO THOSE TRENDS...CURRENTLY WEAK SFC CYCLONE CENTERED IN
   LTS/CDS AREA WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD DOWN RED RIVER VALLEY
   TOWARD ADM/GYI AREA.  LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS W
   GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS E AND SE OF THAT LOW.
    SFC FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTENSIFY FROM LOW NEWD OVER OZARKS AND WWD
   ACROSS SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY/ARKLATEX TO WRN GULF...
   BULK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION WILL DEVELOP DAY-2.  DURING
   LAST COUPLE HOURS OF PERIOD...FCST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/ARW-KF SUGGEST
   SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN IN 800-900 MB LAYER TO SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF SLENDER BUOYANT PROFILES THAT...IN TURN...EXTEND
   VERTICALLY INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION.  SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY ALSO IS EVIDENT OFFSHORE LA WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE
   WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LARGER THAN INLAND.  WHILE ISOLATED LTG CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT INLAND...INTRODUCTION OF 10% THUNDER LINE OVER CONUS IS
   PRECLUDED ATTM BY WEAKNESS OF LAPSE RATES...EARLY-STAGE/IMMATURE
   NATURE OF MOISTURE RETURN LEADING TO MRGL INLAND MOISTURE AT
   BEST...AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL LIFT.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z