Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 231729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC
   COAST REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS
   THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO
   BREAKDOWN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT
   AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY...DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS  ...AN AMPLIFYING
   DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES...IS
   EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AND THE LINGERING
   CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE
   RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF BASIN.
   
   A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN TROUGH LIKELY WILL
   MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION  THROUGH
   THE NORTHEAST...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE TRAILING COLD
   FRONT MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFFSHORE ACROSS
   WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AREAS AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT IT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
   
   MOISTENING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
   EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC
   COAST STATES...COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG
   SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF STATES THRU SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   LINGERING SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE
   EVOLVING PATTERN...AND CONCERN ABOUT THE DEGREE OF THE POTENTIALLY
   DRYING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE... PARTICULARLY THE
   NAM...IS SUGGESTIVE OF CONSIDERABLY GREATER POTENTIAL THAN DEPICTED
   BY THE CURRENT OUTLOOK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
   INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
   
   THE NAM/SREF INDICATE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING
   WILL OCCUR AND BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL
   PLAINS FOR AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500 J/KG.  IF THIS
   BECOMES THE CASE...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS SEEM
   PROBABLE...IN REGIME WHERE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
   STRONG AND SHEARED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS OF 50-60+ KT. 
   POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP FOR...AT LEAST... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND
   POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.  A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. 
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/23/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z