Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 011730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   COUNTRY BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERY LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
   SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A BELT OF VERY
   STRONG SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ON THE SERN SIDE OF
   THE SYSTEM.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CROSSING THE OZARKS REGION EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...DEEPENING WITH TIME INTO
   A SUB-990 MB LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE ERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   INTO ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THIS LOW DEEPENS NEWD
   WITH TIME...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NEWD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE. 
   MEANWHILE A STRONG/ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD/SEWD
   ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY...AND
   SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD ALONG/JUST E
   OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   
   ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING/INCREASING AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEY REGION...NEAR AND
   N OF A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT DEMARCATING THE NRN EDGE OF A
   WARM/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW.
   
   WHILE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL POTENTIAL WITH
   THE STRONGER/ROTATING CELLS -- WILL SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME AS THE
   WARM FRONT RETREATS...CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NWD ADVANCE OF WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR WILL PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES S OF THE ONGOING/ELEVATED
   STORMS...MIXED-LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   RANGE COMBINED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID- AND
   UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON A ZONE FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD
   ACROSS KY AND TN INTO PARTS OF MS AND NRN AL...WHERE RAPID
   INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ALONG
   WITH SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   
   WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BECOME A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND COMPLEX
   LINE SEGMENTS...THREATS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
   TORNADOES APPEARS EVIDENT...ACCOMPANYING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LARGE
   HAIL.  A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY
   DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA.  
   
   OVERNIGHT...SLOW/WEAK STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO A
   GRADUAL DECREASE IN HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH SEVERE
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- SHIFTING EWD TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY
   ACROSS...THE APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...NC AND VICINITY...
   THOUGH GENERALLY WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DURING MUCH OF
   THE DAY...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA LATE
   IN THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE RETREATING
   SURFACE WARM FRONT COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NC AND VICINITY.  WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE
   SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/01/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z