Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 150520
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY 300 MI OFF THE BAJA COAST...WILL
   EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING FRIDAY.  THIS
   FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 20KT AND THIS SPEED
   WOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ALONG
   THE DRY LINE FROM WEST TX INTO SWRN KS.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SFC DEW
   POINTS WILL MIX INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE DRY LINE AS
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.  THIS SHOULD EASILY
   BREAK THE CAP AND ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORT-WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM
   INTO WRN OK WHERE MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AOA 2000 J/KG.  AT THIS
   TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
   AS LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO SHORT-WAVE. 
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT AND SECONDARILY A FEW
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS COULD BE NOTED.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   
   RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES FOR MARCH HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
   CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH MANY AREAS AOA ONE INCH.  SEVERAL
   EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENCOURAGE
   CONVECTION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   FORECAST TO BE EXTREMELY WEAK AND THE PREDICTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBS AT THIS TIME.
   
   A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
   STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST.  MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
   COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION
   CAPABLE OF BREACHING LEVELS REQUIRED FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z