Mar 20, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 20 06:00:41 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120320 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120320 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 200558
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN LA AND A SMALL PORTION OF
   SWRN MS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF WRN OK
   THIS PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO
   THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE ERN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
   COMPLEX/LARGE-SCALE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WRN
   U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OREGON AND PARTS OF NRN
   CA WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WHILE A WEAK COLD
   FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   UPPER LOW.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   A N-S BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD NEAR/JUST W OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA -- I.E.
   ACROSS AR AND WRN LA...WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT.
   
   LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND
   WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
   THE LARGER-SCALE LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AREA.  STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE CONVECTION -- I.E.
   NEARER THE UPPER SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM EXPECTED...THIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL
   FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN
   INITIATE AHEAD OF THE MAIN/PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND.
   
   THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH
   LIMITED THREAT COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
   STORMS SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/20/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z