Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 280559
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AND
   VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE
   MAIN NERN PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF AK...DEAMPLIFYING
   FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. -- WITH THE SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES ACTING TO FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL
   U.S. RIDGE.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AND VICINITY...
   AREAS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
   ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN TWO ZONES OF WARM
   ADVECTION -- ONE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO NEAR THE NOSE OF A SWLY BRANCH
   OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND ONE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS REGION IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A SECOND/MORE SLY BRANCH OF THE JET.
   
   AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS SUPPRESSED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING ASSISTING IN
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR -- LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
   INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY.  WITH TIME...EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER
   SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A STEADY EWD/SEWD SHIFT OF THE
   CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MO AND EVENTUALLY
   INTO WRN MO.
   
   WITH AMPLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION
   SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
   EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
   MAIN THREATS.  OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS --
   POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
   CROSSES THE MO AND LATER THE MID MS VALLEY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/28/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z