Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 130602
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL
   AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
   VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
   MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS
   REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
   INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL
   OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
   A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
   FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   
   NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA
   KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000
   J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
   IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
   FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
   AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
   TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL
   ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
   ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS.
   
   THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
   THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
   IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
   QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
   STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
   SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
   COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
   WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
   BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
   
   ...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
   INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
   LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
   SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY
   EVENING. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
   TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
   ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS
   LOCATED.
   
   ...NW TX/WCNTRL TX...
   AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS
   DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE
   EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
   SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE
   TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING
   THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z