Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 161726
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/GA
   PIEDMONT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD REACH
   THE ARKLATEX EARLY TUE AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY/DEEP
   SOUTH THROUGH EARLY WED. TRAILING PORTION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   TIED TO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   SHOULD SLOW IN EWD PROGRESSION AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN
   ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL PROGRESS EWD REACHING
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
   12Z/WED.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST WELL
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   ALONG A SLOWING COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
   SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOWER-LEVEL FLOW FROM
   THE SURFACE TO 700 MB WILL BE RATHER WEAK...25-40 KT SWLYS AT 500 MB
   WILL BE PREVALENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY IMPULSE.
   
   ETA AND WRF-NMM BASED MEMBERS OF THE SREF ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH
   INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC/GA PIEDMONT. WITH MLCAPE
   PERHAPS REACHING 750-1500 J/KG...THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
   SHOULD YIELD ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS LARGELY CONSISTING OF MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS. INITIALLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A RISK
   OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO
   POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR GREATER BUOYANCY...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   EXTENDING SWWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETUP ON
   TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING INTO
   THE N-CNTRL CONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY TUE
   EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A NARROW
   BELT OF 500 MB WLYS AOA 55 KT. THIS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE
   CYCLONE LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN.
   
   MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF
   THE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MOIST AXIS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER
   50S. NEVERTHELESS...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
   COMBINED WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A STEEP LAPSE
   RATE/SCANT BUOYANCY PROFILE...THAT MAY YIELD ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
   THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
   
   FARTHER E ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY TO UPPER MIDWEST...A FEW
   LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MAY FORM IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
   AS FORCED ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE NRN PLAINS
   CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST AOB 500 J/KG AND
   THIN WITH ELEVATED PARCELS...THE PRONOUNCED STRENGTHENING OF THE
   KINEMATIC PROFILE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/16/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z