Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 191722
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS
   THE ARKLATEX BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND
   INTO LA OVERNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...A STRONG JET
   STREAK WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECTING ERN TX INTO LA AND
   AR. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD...EXTENDING FROM
   NEAR LAREDO TX TO CNTRL LA BY 00Z.
   
   TO THE N...THE NRN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
   THE OH VALLEY. 
   
   ...SRN AND ERN TX...WRN LA...SRN AR...
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY FRI ALONG
   THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CAPPING WILL EXIST FARTHER S AWAY FROM THE
   FRONT INITIALLY...BUT STRONG LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN TX WITH
   STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. SHEAR PROFILES OVER ERN TX AND INTO AR
   AND LA LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER SW...LAPSE
   RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...BUT CAPPING WILL REMAIN FOR
   A LONGER DURATION AND FORCING ESPECIALLY FOR DEEP S TX MAY BE
   LIMITED. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SMALL SLIGHT FOR THE BEST
   COMBINATION OF FORCING AND PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE. MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
   
   IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN IN A POST FRONTAL
   REGIME...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN JUST N OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
   
   ...NRN KY INTO OH...
   CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO EXIST ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT EARLY FRI ACROSS IL AND IND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEATING WILL
   OCCUR AND WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
   THE LOWER 50S F WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. DEEP
   SWLY FLOW...INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS SHOULD HELP
   CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND A FEW STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
   DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND WANE AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/19/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z