Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 140551
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SRN WI...FAR NRN IL TUE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD/WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE ERN
   HALF OF THE CONUS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE SHOULD AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING
   SEWD ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER
   SW...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER
   RIO GRANDE OF TX TO THE WRN GULF COAST.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTING A LESS
   AMPLIFIED/SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF MEAN. CONSENSUS OF THE
   LATTER DEPICT FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD DURING THE
   DAY ON TUE. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO INCREASE
   BEYOND THE LOWER 50S. STILL...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   SHOULD RESULT IN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR AT
   LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL SHOULD PEAK AROUND 00Z AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL NWLYS STRENGTHEN AND
   YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION /MOST
   PROBABLE IN SRN WI/. THE SUSTENANCE OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE
   EVENING IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT COULD FAVOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IF A CLUSTER
   OR TWO PERSISTS.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...
   A BROAD BELT OF 20-30 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD PERSIST DOWNSTREAM
   OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
   WRN GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN
   WEAK...PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
   POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING COULD YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL.
   
   ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF DEEP S TX...
   TIMING OF THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS VARIED WITH THE 00Z
   NAM/GFS AND WRF CONVECTION-ALLOWING RUNS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
   ECMWF/21Z SREF MEAN. THE LATTER SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL HEATING WOULD
   BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NARROWING CORRIDOR OF
   30-40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   PRIOR TO CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/14/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z