Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 230519
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MN THROUGH WRN WI
   INTO THE U.P. OF MI...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   
   MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
   TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN
   TO RISE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD VERY WARM EML
   WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE 700
   MB TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 14C WILL EXTEND AS FAR AS SCNTRL IA. 
   THIS VERY WARM PLUME WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM
   SECTOR...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-80 UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
   WARM ADVECTION MAY DRIVE SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY...THOUGH ADEQUATE PW SHOULD EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR OF
   ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM NERN NEB
   INTO MN.  THIS ZONE OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD
   ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH.  ANY PROSPECTS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT WILL REQUIRE EXTENSIVE HEATING ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED CAP.  THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE
   ACROSS WRN WI...PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS NERN IA.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.  EVEN SO FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD ENCOURAGE
   UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG A NARROW AXIS AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  IF SFC DEW POINTS CAN RISE INTO
   THE LOWER 60S...AND THIS IS YET TO BE DETERMINED...ISOLATED
   TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG MORE NLY
   PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT NEWD
   INTO ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   
   UPPER LOW THAT HAS DRIFTED ACROSS THE ERN GULF STATES WILL EJECT
   NEWD AND WEAK AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.  WEAKER
   INSTABILITY AND LESS FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBS WITH
   TSTMS THAT FORM DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/23/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z