SPC AC 010523
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO/SWRN KS
AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW FORECAST INVOF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SWD-EXTENDING
TROUGH...AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY S OF THE LOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.
THIS PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE...WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WNWWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NWRN
TX.
FARTHER W...A BELT OF FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...ON THE SERN FRINGE OF A LARGE
GULF OF AK VORTEX. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD --
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION DURING THE PERIOD -- WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS
ID/MT/WY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION INTO OK...
DAYTIME HEATING OF A SOMEWHAT MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. WITH A
COMBINATION OF SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCED ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH OVERALL FLOW FIELD PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
BEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING -- AN INCREASING SLY/SSELY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ACT
TO BOTH MODESTLY STRENGTHEN THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS WELL AS ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. ATTM...SOME POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO
EXIST THAT EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD OK.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- PRIMARILY FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
VERY MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH 40 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THIS REGION...DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MODEST
INSTABILITY...ALLOWING A FEW STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS.
..GOSS.. 06/01/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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