Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 071723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE MN...NRN WI
   AND UPPER MI...
   
   ...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
   PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL MT
   FRIDAY WITH BACKED SELY SFC WINDS LOCATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   THE BACKED FLOW WILL ORIENT THE MOIST AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
   NORTHWEST EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS ECNTRL MT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
   INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S F. SFC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AT
   LEAST ACROSS ERN MT. A BIT FURTHER WEST...THE EXIT REGION OF A
   MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY HELPING TO
   INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GREAT
   FALLS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THE CONVECTION EWD ACROSS ERN
   MT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST OF GREAT FALLS AND NORTH OF BILLINGS
   AT 09/00Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
   AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO
   EXIST WITH THE STORM CLUSTER.
   
   CONVECTION INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SWD ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM FAR ERN WY AND WRN SD SWD
   INTO WRN NEB AND ERN CO. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
   KEEP THIS ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED LIMITING SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE.
   
   ...NRN AND ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NERN STATES FRIDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND WITH A MOIST AXIS LOCATED FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EXTENDING
   EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
   LOWER TO MID 50S F FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. 
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN NY AT 21Z FRIDAY SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500
   J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE WEST AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT STORM MODE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WITH COLD
   TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES..ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY
   WITH MODEL FORECASTS MOVING A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TOP
   OF THE RIDGE. BENEATH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AN AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD FROM SD INTO ERN MN
   AND NRN WI WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS
   AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF SOUTHWEST
   FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT WARM
   MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY KEEP WIND
   DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZES AND
   MOVES EWD INTO THE NRN WI.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/07/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z