Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 220548
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF ORE
   SATURDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN AXIS OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS WWD INTO
   MT AND NRN ID. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN WA EWD INTO CNTRL MT WHERE POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN MT AT 00Z/SUN IN AREAS THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS BUT UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS
   FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A MOIST AXIS IN
   PLACE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW EXTENDING NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS
   AND UPPER MS VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD HELP MODERATE
   INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE THE GFS
   DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   AT 00Z/SUN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
   HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
   WITH A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED AND
   KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT CONCENTRATED IN NRN MN AND NRN WI WHERE A 5
   PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z