SPC AC 241729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO
THE NC VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PERSISTED JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN AN INLAND PROGRESSION THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL BE
SHUNTED TOWARD A NEWD TRACK AS THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD
OUT OF SRN QUEBEC/ERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AS THE NERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGIONS...FOCUSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...A HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST FROM NERN MT SSEWD TOWARD
NERN CO -- WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION AS
WELL. FINALLY...T.S. DEBBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ERN
GULF COAST REGION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK/INTENSITY
INFORMATION REGARDING T.S. DEBBY...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS/ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE ERN NC VICINITY...
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY EVOLVE...SHIFTING FAIRLY
QUICKLY SEWD AND ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. GIVEN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SEVERE
THREAT AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING -- WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
LINGER BEYOND SUNSET.
...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...
THOUGH EXACT TRACK/MOVEMENT OF T.S. DEBBY REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM...A
GENERAL LINGERING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS
LIKELY. A SUCH...PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF COASTAL REGION WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN/NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM -- WHERE ENHANCED
SELY/ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST. THUS -- EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA...WARRANTING
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST FROM FAR
SERN LA TO SWRN FL.
...NRN MT/NRN PLAINS AREA...
CAPPING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
MT AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS -- REFLECTING SOME NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM -- ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS --
COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
ENHANCED SSWLY FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/VIGOROUS STORMS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER CELLS...COVERAGE
QUESTIONS PERSIST ATTM...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF ONLY LOW /5%/
SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
..GOSS.. 06/24/2012
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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