Jun 24, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 24 17:31:41 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120624 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120624 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 241729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO
   THE NC VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PERSISTED JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST IS
   FORECAST TO BEGIN AN INLAND PROGRESSION THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL BE
   SHUNTED TOWARD A NEWD TRACK AS THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE REMAINS
   FIRMLY IN PLACE.  FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD
   OUT OF SRN QUEBEC/ERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
   THE SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  
   
   AS THE NERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGIONS...FOCUSING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A HIGH
   PLAINS LEE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST FROM NERN MT SSEWD TOWARD
   NERN CO -- WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION AS
   WELL.  FINALLY...T.S. DEBBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF
   OF MEXICO...WITH WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ERN
   GULF COAST REGION.  FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK/INTENSITY
   INFORMATION REGARDING T.S. DEBBY...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
   FORECASTS/ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE ERN NC VICINITY...
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
   THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS A MID-LEVEL
   JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
   SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT
   CLUSTERS OF STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY EVOLVE...SHIFTING FAIRLY
   QUICKLY SEWD AND ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  GIVEN
   THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT
   EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SEVERE
   THREAT AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AREA.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EVENING -- WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
   LINGER BEYOND SUNSET.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...
   THOUGH EXACT TRACK/MOVEMENT OF T.S. DEBBY REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM...A
   GENERAL LINGERING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS
   LIKELY.  A SUCH...PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF COASTAL REGION WILL
   REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN/NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM -- WHERE ENHANCED
   SELY/ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.  THUS -- EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA...WARRANTING
   INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST FROM FAR
   SERN LA TO SWRN FL.
   
   ...NRN MT/NRN PLAINS AREA...
   CAPPING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
   MT AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAK
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS -- REFLECTING SOME NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
   UPPER SYSTEM -- ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS --
   COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
   ENHANCED SSWLY FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/VIGOROUS STORMS.  WHILE DAMAGING WINDS
   AND/OR HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER CELLS...COVERAGE
   QUESTIONS PERSIST ATTM...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF ONLY LOW /5%/
   SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/24/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z