Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 100533
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
   MEAN TROUGHING FROM WRN CANADA SWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO WRN GULF
   COAST.  HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WITHIN THAT TROUGH WILL RISE ACROSS GREAT
   LAKES/NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING 11/12Z-11/18Z SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
   OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.  BROAD WEAKNESS IN MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
   WILL PERSIST OVER LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...WRN GULF COAST AND NERN
   MEX...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA OFFERING MESOSCALE
   SUPPORT ALOFT FOR GEN TSTM POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...STG ANTICYCLONE
   WILL PERSIST OVER GREAT BASIN...WITH MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVES
   MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SK/MB...AND APCHG PAC NW.  LATTER FEATURE
   SHOULD NOT MOVE ASHORE UNTIL DAY-3.  CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST
   AMONG PROGS REGARDING TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF NRN HIGH PLAINS
   PERTURBATION...BOTH AMONG OPERATIONAL PROGS AND SREF MEMBERS.
   
   AT SFC...BROAD AND CONVECTIVELY MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW
   EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSES FROM TIDEWATER REGION WSWWD ACROSS SRN
   APPALACHIANS...TN VALLEY AND SERN OK -- IS FCST TO DRIFT SWD THEN
   BECOME QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH DAY-1.  BY 11/12Z...REMNANTS OF THIS
   FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NC WSWWD ACROSS MS TO S-CENTRAL TX...WITH
   CONTINUING ADJUSTMENT OF SHAPE AND POSITION OF EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE BY ASSORTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. 
   FARTHER N...WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SK AND NRN MT AND
   MOVE EWD/SEWD OVER PORTIONS MT AND PERHAPS ND DURING THIS PERIOD. 
   SPECIFIC TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SFC
   LOW OVER ERN MT...REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM GIVEN VARIATIONS IN
   LOW-LEVEL MASS-FIELD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIDLEVEL WAVE.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SFC ANALYSES INDICATE BROAD AREA OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY
   AIDED/GENERATED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS 60S F FROM RED RIVER REGION
   OF ERN ND ACROSS SRN SK/AB AND NERN WA.  SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
   BE AVAILABLE TO TRAJECTORIES FOR DAY-2 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN EITHER OF TWO
   REGIMES...WHICH HAVE SOME SPATIAL OVERLAP IN BROAD/MRGL PROBABILITY
   AREA GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED TIMING/AMPLITUDE UNCERTAINTIES ALOFT...
   1. POSTFRONTAL/RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...HEATED DIABATICALLY
   DURING AFTERNOON WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER CINH. FAVORABLY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST FOR STG TSTMS WITH GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS
   POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EWD TOWARD ERN MT/WRN
   DAKOTAS DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   2. AFTERNOON TSTMS FORMING INVOF FRONT AND ITS INTERSECTION WITH LEE
   TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SWD INTO WY.  BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGIME
   WILL BE DRIER...MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND TOPPED BY WEAKER BUT STILL
   SUFFICIENT CAPE...COMPARED TO POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS.  MAIN CONCERN
   WOULD BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AGAIN SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING
   AFTERNOON...INVOF REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL
   CONCENTRATION/INTENSITY NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS.  STG SFC
   HEATING AND POCKETS OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS SWATH...LOCALLY EXCEEDING
   3000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR EACH WILL BE VERY WEAK. 
   PRECIP LOADING AND LOCALIZED COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STG-SVR GUSTS WITHIN BROAD CORRIDOR OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/10/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z