Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 311718
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.  DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE
   OVER THE SCNTRL U.S. SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
   ONLY CORRIDOR OF MEANINGFUL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS
   THE NRN TIER OF STATES WHERE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
   SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD ALONG THE
   U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS FEATURE WILL
   INDUCE A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO WHICH
   WILL ENCOURAGE SWLY BOUNDARY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD
   OF PROGRESSIVE WIND SHIFT.  AS A RESULT A WARM EML WILL OVERSPREAD
   MUCH OF THE REGION AND CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN FOR
   POTENTIAL SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
   APPROACHING 12C ACROSS SRN HALF OF MN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F WILL BE REQUIRED FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY.  IF SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL COOLING CAN OVERSPREAD THIS
   REGION TOWARD EVENING THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   EASIER.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT
   SEVERE PROBS FOR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS PRIMARILY DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS OF CO/KS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION ALONG WEAK SFC
   BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  GFS IS MORE
   AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM NERN CO INTO NRN KS AFTER 00Z
   THAN THE NAM AND GIVEN THE WIND HISTORY WITH TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS
   THIS REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...ERN U.S...
   
   LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR
   FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
   WRN NY.  BY 18Z MUCH OF THIS REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED
   MULTI-CELL TSTMS AS 500MB FLOW SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 20KT. 
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 07/31/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z