Aug 4, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 4 06:02:43 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120804 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120804 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 040600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT AUG 04 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
   STATES/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT SUMMERTIME UPPER
   TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION/ONTARIO EARLY SUNDAY TO
   QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD
   THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY
   NIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WESTERLIES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
   THE TN VALLEY. 
   
   AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
   SCATTERED TSTMS/PERHAPS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITIES. SOME QUESTIONS
   LINGER REGARDING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
   SUNDAY...AND THE EXACT MAGNITUDE/SPATIAL LOCATION OF PRIMARY
   PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY
   DAY TSTMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS/PERHAPS EVEN AN MCV COULD BE FACTORS
   THAT INFLUENCE/FOCUS A REINVIGORATION OF TSTMS INTO A
   MOIST/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WELL EAST OF
   THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...OTHER TSTMS MAY MATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN VICINITY OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLE CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE/SURFACE TROUGH.
   
   REGARDLESS OF THESE DETAILS...A GENERAL INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF
   TSTMS IS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
   THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG
   SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE
   LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME
   SUPERCELLS/PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. SEVERAL ORGANIZED
   QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS AND MCS/S MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
   /MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/ REACHING AS FAR EAST AS INTERIOR NEW
   ENGLAND/NORTHEAST SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
   FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...A MORE UNSTABLE BUT WEAKER
   VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST PERIODIC
   DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /PRIMARILY DAMAGING
   WIND/ MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS IN
   VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR PERIPHERY OF A FL DISTURBANCE.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ORE AND NORTHERN CA/NORTHERN NV...
   TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON
   SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE/FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN TANDEM WITH A
   NORTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. AS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
   STORMS DEVELOP/INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A MODEST
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE/VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
   ACCOUNT FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS/HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/04/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z