Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 071729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST EITHER SIDE OF A RIDGE AXIS
   EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES A
   GENERAL TREND TOWARD DEAMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
   PACIFIC AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST...AND AN AMPLIFICATION OF
   UPPER TROUGHING EAST OF THE U.S. PLAINS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. 
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF
   THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INTO
   BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA...WHILE ANOTHER DIGS
   DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
   LAKES REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS LATTER FEATURE
   WILL BE PRECEDED BY A NUMBER OF OTHER WEAKER IMPULSES PROGRESSING
   THROUGH THE CYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   U.S...WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGH CENTER.
   
   STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
   NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AN
   ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC BELT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. 
   STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
   CONFINED...BY NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY FLOW...TO THE PLAINS.  THE
   EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS MAY COINCIDE WITH LINGERING RELATIVELY
   HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGION.  BUT HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY
   PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
   TO A CORRIDOR FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
   
   THIS EVOLVING PATTERN SUPPORTS SEVERAL FAIRLY BROAD AREAS WHERE THE
   RISK FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT EITHER
   TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...OR THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TOO
   MARGINAL...FOR SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...
   AT LEAST POCKETS OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE APPEAR POSSIBLE
   WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BENEATH 25-30+ KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
   FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF
   POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS
   CLUSTERS.  HOWEVER...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
   REMAINS LOW...AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE IMPACT OF
   POSSIBLE DAY 1 CONVECTION.
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
   DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
   SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
   DESTABILIZATION...AND THE LOCATION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS... WHICH
   MAY BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   ...ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
   AS AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MAY BE
   CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS...WHERE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS SEEM
   LIKELY TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WHERE/WHEN LAPSE RATES MAY BE A BIT STEEPER/BUT MOISTURE
   LEVELS A BIT LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
   PRIMARY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY
   TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THROUGH SOUTHERN
   BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SASKATCHEWAN...BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AN AREA OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD STILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO INTO
   SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW
   MOISTURE LEVELS PROBABLY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING
   DESTABILIZATION...BUT...GIVEN AT LEAST MODESTLY STRONG WESTERLY
   MID/UPPER FLOW...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
   THAT DO FORM.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/07/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z