Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
   ON FRIDAY...WITH A DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
   STATES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE
   ENCOMPASSES MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE
   FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS
   EASTWARD TOWARD/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE PORTION OF THE
   FRONT OVER THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY
   SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY STALLS.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   AS HEIGHT FALLS GRADUALLY OCCUR AND THE COLD FRONT SPREADS
   EASTWARD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY EARLY
   DAY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME WEAK TO MODESTLY
   UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH THINKING IS THAT MLCAPE MAY NOT EXCEED 750-1500
   J/KG IN MOST AREAS. EVEN AS THE STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR LAGS THE COLD FRONT /TO THE WEST/...SOME
   SEMI-SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...
   IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...CLOUD COVER/EARLY
   PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT PUTS INTO
   QUESTION THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
   SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION INCREASE...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
   RISK COULD BE WARRANTED FOR AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN NY AND ADJACENT
   PA/NJ INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 
   
   ...MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CO/NM FRONT RANGE...
   STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR
   AND SOUTH /EXCEPT FRONT RANGE/ ALONG AN EXTENSIVE PART OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE/STALL ACROSS THE REGION.
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...BUT
   AMPLE MOISTURE/HEATING SOUTH THE FRONT MAY ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST
   SPORADIC DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH
   SOME HAIL ACROSS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN AZ...
   A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH SOME
   STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY COINCIDENT
   WITH A MORE LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE
   LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF A GUSTY WIND THREAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN OWING TO
   POSSIBILITY OF LESSER INSTABILITY/WEAKER STEERING FLOW...AND WILL
   THUS DEFER AN INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/16/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z