Aug 31, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 31 05:58:41 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120831 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120831 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 310556
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THIS
   PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING CONFINED TO THE WRN AND NERN CONUS ONLY. 
   THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...FORECAST TO
   LINGER INVOF MO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   THE ONLY OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF ANY PROMINENCE IS SURFACE COLD
   FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE SECOND
   HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
   ROCKIES.
   
   WHILE SHOWERS AND A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LARGE-SCALE RIDGING SHOULD HINDER APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE --
   AND THUS STRONGLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER SERN VA AND THE
   CAROLINAS REGION...BUT GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK
   FLOW SUGGEST NO MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT.
   
   FINALLY...REMNANT CIRCULATION AROUND ISAAC MAY SUPPORT A VERY
   LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WITH A STRONGER
   CELL OR TWO...BUT IN ALL OF THESE AREAS...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF EVEN MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY
   LINES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/31/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z