Aug 31, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 31 17:31:41 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120831 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120831 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 311729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   WESTERN/NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA ON SATURDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
   UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS ROCKIES. THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY VICINITIES.
   
   ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
   THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER MO THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
   WILL ACCOMPANY REMNANT ISAAC WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MOST
   PROBABLE/IMPACTFUL HAZARD. THAT SAID...SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE AS WELL ON
   SATURDAY. WHILE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
   PREVALENT...THERE ARE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT A BIT STRONGER
   DESTABILIZATION COULD DIURNALLY OCCUR ON THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF
   REMNANT ISAAC. GIVEN THIS...RELATIVELY STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AND AN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT /ALBEIT LIKELY A BIT
   WEAKER AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST
   TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
   DAYLIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/EASTERN GREAT DIVIDE...
   A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW /35-40 KT/ WILL
   EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CA/DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
   SATURDAY. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OR
   TWO...MODERATE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SUFFICIENT PW ENVIRONMENT
   WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SUSTAINED/SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTMS
   ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE TSTMS MAY
   BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.
   
   ...AZ...
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY AS
   MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES INTO PARTS OF AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
   OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
   MODESTLY ENHANCED BELT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW
   FOR A FEW SUSTAINED/STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND AND/OR MARGINAL
   HAIL.
   
   ...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MT TO MUCH OF ND/WESTERN SD...
   HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY INTO
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH A SHARPENING DAKOTAS SURFACE LOW/LEE
   TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS MT. TSTMS WILL
   INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ACROSS MT...AND PERHAPS
   INTO WESTERN SD/MUCH OF ND BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE OF STEEP
   LAPSE RATES/INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PRIMARY LIMITATION WILL
   BE LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...ALTHOUGH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER MAY ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS WHERE TSTMS INDEED OCCUR SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT OVERALL...SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS
   MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN/MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/31/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z