Sep 3, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 3 05:51:42 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120903 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120903 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 030549
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
   MO VALLEY VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT OVER THE NRN
   HALF OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   ROTATES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CANADA/N CENTRAL U.S. BORDER REGION ON
   THE SRN SIDE OF THE LARGER-SCALE VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING
   THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT IS
   PROGGED TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -- IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED/PASSING
   UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
   QUICKLY EWD/SEWD...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS
   REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS..
   UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL AXES OF GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM.  IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT AS A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATOP A
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...A WEAK NW-SE WARM
   FRONTAL-TYPE FEATURE MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AS WILL THE
   COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA.
   
   WITH 25 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...PARTICULARLY NE OF THE WEAK WARM
   FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN MORE BACKED/SELY.  ALONG WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR
   ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWD AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/03/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z