Sep 3, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 3 17:27:42 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120903 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120903 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 031725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN MB INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A
   STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...H5 FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50KT...DIGS INTO
   ERN ND/NRN MN BY 05/00Z.  SUBSEQUENT DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH SHOULD
   ENCOURAGE ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY.  LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
   LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING.  ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
   MODELS IS THE NAM IS MORE CONVERGENT AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS WI DUE TO
   A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   TROUGH.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THIS FASTER SOLUTION IS ACCURATE
   BUT WILL INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
   ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
   CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS SRN
   MN/NWRN IA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING.  MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL TSTMS
   AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   THE MID MO VALLEY.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
   
   
   ....CENTRAL GULF STATES...
   
   NLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES ON THE
   BACK SIDE OF TROUGH FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC.  WHILE THE MAJORITY
   OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE ERN
   GULF STATES INTO THE APPALACHIANS...ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
   ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL WILL DO SO WITHIN A STEEPER LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
   FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/03/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z