Sep 4, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 4 06:03:03 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120904 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120904 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 040549
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS AGAIN PROGGED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
   OF THE CONUS...S OF THE SLOW-MOVING CANADIAN PRAIRIE VORTEX. 
   MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
   THE NRN U.S. WITHIN THE FAST FLOW FIELD.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
   MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
   THE MAIN AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
   OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
   VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD INTO A
   DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CONVECTION CAN
   BE EXPECTED -- AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG WNWLYS ALOFT SPREADING EWD
   ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE.  WITH TIME...EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A
   SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY FROM WI SWD INTO
   IL...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACCOMPANYING BOTH THE LINE
   AS WELL AS OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS.
   
   SOME THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS
   WI AND IL AND INTO LOWER MI.  EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF
   DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/04/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z