Sep 4, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 4 17:19:44 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120904 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120904 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 041718
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
   MS VALLEY...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY...
   
   AN AREA OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO WI BY 05/18Z. 
   FRONTAL ASCENT/WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIVE ONE OR MORE
   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NRN WI/U.P.
   OF MI BY MID DAY AND THE STRONGEST ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SWWD ALONG THE
   ADVANCING WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 
   THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD
   WILL BE WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 AS MODEST MID LEVEL
   FLOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE
   CONUS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHERE
   SFC-6KM VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 30-40KT.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
   IT ADVANCES INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
   DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD LIMIT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NWRN
   TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  IF
   SUFFICIENT CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERISTIC
   OF SFC TEMPERATURES 100F+ THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   MAY REQUIRE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/04/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z