Sep 5, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 5 17:12:47 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120905 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120905 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 051711
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   WEAK/NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
   THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER WLY FLOW THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
   SWD ACROSS THE NRN U.S.  BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST A VERY WEAK LOW
   AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS BY 07/00Z...THOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
   AXIS INTO SCNTRL NEB/NWRN KS BY EARLY EVENING.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   FEATURE SFC PRESSURES SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   FORCING A COLD FRONTAL SURGE SWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES TO
   A POSITION FROM SCNTRL SD/NEB PANHANDLE/SERN WY BY 00Z.  WHILE MID
   LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
   SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF ORGANIZED
   MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DEEP ROTATING TSTMS.
   
   THERMODYNAMICALLY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE
   EFFECTIVE AND INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES
   IN THE MID 90S ACROSS KS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR DEEP
   THERMALS/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL
   INITIALLY BE FOCUSED WITHIN THE STRONGER ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
   THIS MAY ENCOURAGE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE ACROSS
   THE SLGT RISK REGION.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION THAT
   MATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   
   HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY DIFFLUENT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   INTO THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF STATES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS
   FLOW REGIME MAY ULTIMATELY ALLOW A FEW OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS FROM LATE DAY1 TO LINGER INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD AS THEY
   PROPAGATE SLOWLY DOWNSTREAM.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THESE
   POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FIELDS WILL INFLUENCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   FROM WRN NY...SWWD ACROSS WRN PA/OH THROUGH KY/TN INTO NRN MS.  AT
   THIS TIME IT APPEARS 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
   STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS AND PERHAPS WITH RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF DAY1 ACTIVITY.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE THAN PULSE/MULTI-CELL STORM STRUCTURES
   THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/05/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z