Sep 6, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 6 06:02:43 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120906 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120906 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 060600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS
   SWWD INTO THE OZARKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO STRENGTHENING
   THIS PERIOD...AS A ROBUST UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OUT OF
   THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. 
   AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE -- WILL STRENGTHEN
   WHILE SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.  BY LATE IN THE
   PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
   SWWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS.  THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD FOCUS
   A BROAD AREA OF ACTIVE/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS -- MAINLY FROM
   AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   ...MID AND LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS REGION...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO AND VICINITY...WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG QG
   FORCING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
   SEWD AND THE COLD FRONT SHARPENS/ADVANCES ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
   VALLEYS AND OZARKS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DESTABILIZING
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE/REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. 
   WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
   ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS -- WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.  WHILE THE DETAILS
   REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AND INTO THE EVENING ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO THE
   DYNAMIC/STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
   PERIOD...WILL INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE
   OZARKS NEWD INTO THE MID OH VALLEY AREA TO COVER THIS EVOLVING
   SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY
   ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION DAY 2...AS
   AFTERNOON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION PUSHES MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
   INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE IN MOST AREAS.  WITH A LACK OF A
   CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY AND MODEST FLOW
   ALOFT...ONLY A VERY ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EVIDENT THROUGH THE
   FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
   
   OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...STORMS MAY
   BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL...BUT WITH
   THIS OCCURRING DURING THE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AFTER DARK --
   PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/06/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z