Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 140453
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONE
   OVER GREAT BASIN REGION...PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVES...AND
   PERSISTENT/WEAK TROUGHING FROM WRN MEX NEWD ACROSS NM AND SRN KS. 
   LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO NET SEWD DRIFT...WHILE
   EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVOLVES INTO SMALL/WEAK/CLOSED/500-MB
   CYCLONE.  GIVEN MESOSCALE NATURE OF VORTICITY FEATURES ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS PERTURBATION...AND AMBIENT WEAKNESS OF BOTH FLOW AND
   THERMAL FEATURES ALOFT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT MODELS VARY
   CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THAT LOW...PROGGED AT 16/12Z
   OVER TRANS-PECOS REGION BY NAM AND NEAR CDS BY SPECTRAL. RANGE OF
   SREF SOLUTIONS IS EVEN GREATER.  BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH
   WELL-DEFINED/NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE NOW
   CROSSING NWRN ONT OVER BOUNDARY WATERS/THUNDER BAY REGION.  AS THAT
   FEATURE SHIFTS EWD...ATTACHED MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REACH ERN
   NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 15/12Z...THEN MOVE EWD OUT OF MAINE BEFORE
   END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER
   WRN CANADA...MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS MB/SK AND PERHAPS REACHING
   ND/CANADA LINE BY END OF PERIOD.
   
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN PERTURBATION SHOULD
   CROSS MT...MOST OF ND...AND PORTIONS SD/NWRN MN THIS PERIOD. 
   FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD FORM BY 16/12Z OVER SD.  OLDER COLD FRONT --
   NOW DRAWN FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS INDIANA...WRN/NRN
   AR...AND S-CENTRAL TX -- SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND EARLY
   IN PERIOD...WHILE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY AND DIFFUSE FROM PORTIONS
   MS/AL SWWD ACROSS S TX.  MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
   HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS...LIKELIHOOD OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO
   BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...AND AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES
   IN PROGS OF PROXIMAL UPPER FEATURES.
   
   ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NE TX...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
   ANYTIME DURING PERIOD.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION IN AREAS THAT MAY BE DIABATICALLY HEATED DURING DAY WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF MLCINH.  REGIME OF BROAD/WEAK MOIST
   ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AMIDST LOW-LEVEL SELY/SLY
   FLOW...RESULTING IN 60S F SFC DEW POINTS.  FCST SOUNDINGS
   ACCOMPANYING MORE NERN/PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO FOR MID-UPPER
   PERTURBATION OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL/MRGL SUPERCELL
   CONCERN OVER THIS REGION.  WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS.  FURTHER UNCERTAINTIES
   PRECLUDING UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM INVOLVE FEATURE
   ALOFT...AND BY EXTENSION CHARACTER/POSITIONING OF ANY
   SUBTLE/LOW-LEVEL TSTM FOCI.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z