Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160544
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AR...SE
   MO...FAR SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN AND NW MS...
   
   ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
   SEWD INTO THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET DIVES
   INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
   SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS STORMS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR LINE LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
   INSTABILITY PEAKING NEAR 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F. THIS ALONG WITH 0-6
   KM OF AROUND 50 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. COLD TEMPS
   ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE
   MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
   FRONTAL FORCING COULD RESULT IN A RAPID TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE.
   THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS
   MCS DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS
   THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT EVENT
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL AR. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP
   OFF WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY DUE TO A
   LACK OF DESTABILIZATION. A SHARP DROP OFF IN THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DUE TO THE STRONG CAP IN
   PLACE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 10/16/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z