Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 190547
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE CLOSED LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT
   ADVANCES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
   CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES WITH VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL.
   
   IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS...LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS
   EXPECTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA AS A STRONG POLAR
   JET CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
   ROCKIES. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
   BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA MEXICO.
   
   ...EASTERN CONUS...
   NEAR AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...A FEW TSTMS MAY BE
   POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FL DURING THE DAY...AND PERHAPS COASTAL SOUTHERN
   NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE...THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL SUCH THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL
   WILL BE QUITE LIMITED /AROUND 10 PERCENT/...WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL LEAD TO
   SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSTMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR WA/NORTHWEST ORE COASTAL AREAS AND
   OFFSHORE WATERS.
   
   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...
   A LOW PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS COULD EXIST FOR AREAS SUCH AS EXTREME
   SOUTHWEST TX/FAR SOUTHERN NM...AND/OR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/OZARKS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT REGIME. BUT IN EITHER CASE...PREVALENT CAPPING AND WEAK
   OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPLY THAT TSTM POTENTIAL IS MUCH TOO LOW
   /SUB-10 PERCENT/ TO WARRANT TSTM PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/19/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z