Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 201722
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL
   U.S. WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS HELPING TO BRING
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD. A SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY SWWD TO A WEAK LOW OVER SRN KS AT 00Z...THEN CONTINUING
   SWWD INTO WRN TX. OVERNIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
   NRN MEXICO INTO W TX...AND WILL HELP FOCUS NOCTURNAL
   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE. TO THE N...PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL
   TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO IA...WITH A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS LIKELY
   THERE AS WELL.
   
   ...SWRN TX OVERNIGHT...
   CAPPING WILL EXIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SW TX...WITH UPPER
   HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
   WILL BE LURKING JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...AND WILL RETURN NWWD OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO
   OVER 20 KT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
   SOME COOLING ALOFT AND LIFT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A STREAK OF
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN 03-06Z SE OF ELP AND SPREADING NEWD
   ACROSS THE MAF AREA AFTER 06Z. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY. COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE MORE CAPPING PROBLEMS
   THAN OTHERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT...WILL
   MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ...IA...NRN MO...WRN IL...ERN NEB AND FAR NERN KS...
   INCREASING LIFT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 03Z...MOST LIKELY
   CENTERED OVER IA AND NRN MO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
   MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/20/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z