Nov 7, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 7 15:57:42 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121107 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20121107 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 071555
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0955 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...WRN U.S...
   
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150-180M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN U.S. AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD AND MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES INLAND ACROSS CNTRL CA.  VERY COLD MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SUCH
   THAT EVEN WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THERE APPEARS TO BE
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
   FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  THE MOST LIKELY
   REGION FOR ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NEAR
   COASTAL AREAS WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL AID INSTABILITY.
   
   FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...A POCKET OF ASCENT
   COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES.  SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE NWRN QUADRANT OF EJECTING SFC
   LOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG COLD SIDE OF
   BOUNDARY.
   
   ANOTHER REGION WHERE A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS THE
   HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS OF AZ WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. 
   MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   THAT SHOULD EJECT NEWD INTO AZ AHEAD OF PRIMARY DIGGING UPPER
   TROUGH.  MOISTENING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND WEAK ASCENT MAY AID
   CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 11/07/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z