Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 251716
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO LA...SRN
   AR...AND FAR WRN MS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL AR AND TO THE OH
   RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SURGE SWD TO A TX COAST TO SRN
   APPALACHIAN LINE BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SWD BY
   STRONG NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
   WILL BE AT 00Z. A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS
   NRN MEXICO...ARRIVING IN CNTRL/ERN TX DURING THE EVENING. 
   
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
   OVER CNTRL AND ERN TX...WHERE SSWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THIS...ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND FORCING
   ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
   SEVERE FROM E CNTRL TX TO THE MS RIVER.
   
   ...E TX INTO LA...SRN AR...WRN MS...
   AREAS OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
   MID MORNING FROM SRN AR INTO MS...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.
   DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MUCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG FROM E CNTRL TX INTO NRN LA. WITH FULL
   HEATING AND SWLY WINDS OVER CNTRL TX...THIS IS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL BE POINTED. THUS...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED THERE...POSSIBLY HIGH BASED. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN
   OCCUR NEWD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN TX
   AND INTO SRN AR AND LA...WHERE MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE DUE WLY.
   HERE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. COMBINED
   PARAMETERS IN PLACE WILL GENERALLY FAVOR MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES AROUND
   GOLF BALL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 2.00". HOWEVER...A SUBTLE VEER-BACK
   WIND PROFILE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER MAY HAVE AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON
   STORM STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS...SEVERE HAIL GREATER THAN 1.00" IS
   LIKELY.
   
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT
   FORMS OVER CNTRL TX IN THE HEAT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
   AND PROPAGATE ESEWD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER
   MIDNIGHT.
   
   OVERALL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...WITH ONLY
   A LOW THREAT WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MERGES INTO A
   LINE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z