Dec 7, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 7 17:27:46 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121207 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20121207 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 071725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST FRI DEC 07 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...ARKLATEX/MID MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
   SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
   THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
   AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM EAST TX
   EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE
   FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F. ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOIST
   SECTOR...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AS THE SFC LOW
   MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   LATE SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK AND MEMPHIS AT 06Z/SUN SHOW MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. IN
   SPITE OF THE POOR LAPSE RATES...THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORM
   COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/07/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z