Dec 23, 2012 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 23 06:58:52 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121223 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20121223 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 230656
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
   AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
   PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS
   SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION MONDAY EVENING FROM SCNTRL
   TX EWD TO THE HOUSTON AREA. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED
   WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPON THE APPROACH OF THE
   EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET...WILL RESULT IN THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. 
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE HOUSTON AREA AT 09Z TO 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
   SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IF CELLS CAN REMAIN
   DISCRETE AFTER INITIATION. IN ADDITION...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF AROUND 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. IF A SQUALL-LINE QUICKLY ORGANIZES
   ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS EAST
   TX...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT LATE
   MONDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. IN SPITE OF THIS...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK
   APPEARS WARRANTED DUE TO THE POTENT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
   FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND AN UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS.
   
   FURTHER TO THE EAST...DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS LA
   AND CNTRL MS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 09Z/TUE IN LA AND CNTRL MS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK
   INSTABILITY BUT HAVE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. IF
   CELLS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT
   COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z