Dec 23, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 23 17:33:52 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121223 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20121223 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 231731
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
   ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY
   MOVES INTO THE ERN ATLANTIC...A SECOND TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC
   NW/GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO DIG/AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   AND EMERGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
   
   AS THIS FEATURE DIGS SEWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED --
   INITIALLY OVER THE SERN CO VICINITY.  THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE
   PERIOD...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD...REACHING N TX BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD AS COLD AIR DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CHRISTMAS DAY WINTRY WEATHER OVER
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...THUNDERSTORMS -- AND
   SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
   POSSIBLY ADJACENT AREAS OF LA.
   
   ...E TX INTO LA...
   WHILE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY AREA DURING THE FIRST
   HALF OF THE PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE
   AFTER DARK...AND FARTHER TO THE W.  
   
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES COMBINED WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NWD
   WILL RESULT IN A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  AS WARM ADVECTION/QG
   ASCENT INCREASES...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AS VEERING WINDS/SHEAR
   INCREASES TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE.  WHILE
   SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE SABINE RIVER LATE...THE
   GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER E TX FROM MID EVENING ONWARD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 12/23/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z