Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 240653
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SCNTRL MS
   AND WCNTRL AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR
   PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
   AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET
   IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD
   OVER A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
   COINCIDES WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX
   COASTAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
   UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. 
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
   TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
   0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
   350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
   GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
   MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
   INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
   BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
   EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
   WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
   FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
   WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
   THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
   ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
   COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z