Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 150758
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A STRONG
   UPPER JET MAX STRETCHING FROM KS INTO INDIANA TUE MORNING. THIS
   FEATURE SHOULD TIGHTEN FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   AND NOSING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
   PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MI TOWARDS UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 00Z
   WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO ERN
   TX. SWLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS FROM LA INTO MS AND AL WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL
   AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...LA/MS/AL...
   AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE N...A LARGELY ZONAL
   FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ALONG THE
   SURFACE COLD FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
   ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
   FRONT. OVERALL...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AT AROUND 500 J/KG. BUT
   STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST...AND WILL FAVOR
   EITHER SPLITTING CELLS WITH MARGINAL HAIL OR FAST MOVING LINE
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY SEVERE. SOME TIMING
   ISSUES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE UPPER
   WAVE AND COLD FRONT MUCH SLOWER. THEREFORE...WILL DEFER TO LATER
   OUTLOOKS FOR ANY LOW END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z