Jan 20, 2012 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 20 19:39:02 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120120 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120120 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 201936
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   MS/OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   
   20/12Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
   WHICH HAVE MORE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A MORE INTENSE AND LOWER
   LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
   TILTED ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
   INTO MONDAY MORNING.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT
   WHICH WILL MOVE INTO GULF COAST REGION DURING THE D1/D2 PERIOD WILL
   LIKELY WEAKEN...RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SHELF WATERS.  
   
   GIVEN THE MORE SRN TRACK OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CONFIDENCE
   IS INCREASING THAT THE NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH
   STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED
   FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WITH SUPERCELLS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ..MEAD/GOSS.. 01/20/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z