Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 130822
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
   THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OUT OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID
   LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO A COUPLE OF
   LINGERING DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. 
   THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DIGGING INTO
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ONE OF THESE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING OUT OF THE PLATEAU
   REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY COINCIDE
   WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
   COAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.  SO
   THE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIFT OUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
   THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE AND EXTENT OF NORTHERN
   STREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
   CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
   CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
   FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
   THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
   HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE
   TIMING AND MANNER IN WHICH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
   OF THE ROCKIES...AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS RESULT IN AN UNCERTAIN
   CONVECTIVE FORECAST.  THE 13/00Z NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT
   DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
   FOCUSED MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO
   NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.  THE 13/00Z GFS AND
   ECMWF APPEAR TO FAVOR AN AREA FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
   THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MAINLY DURING THE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND
   CONSISTENCIES FROM THEIR PRIOR RUNS...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS AT
   LEAST A BIT MORE PROBABLE.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
   OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WOULD SEEM TO OFFER GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
   THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/13/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z